Orgryte IS 1-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Orgryte IS take on Gais.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Nya Ullevi to face Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Tuesday 3 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 1W 3D 2L at Nya Ullevi — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Gais's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais away from home this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Orgryte IS's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 54% versus Gais 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Orgryte IS 38% | Gais 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 0.81 xG and Gais 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.795 / defence 1.039 | Gais attack 0.653 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.098. Orgryte IS's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Orgryte IS games / 13 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 34% | Draw 36% | Gais 30%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Gais 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Gais's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 33% | Gais 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Nya Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 34% | Draw 36% | Gais 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG Orgryte IS 0.81 / Gais 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.795 / def 1.039 | Gais attack 0.653 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Gais xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Gais kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Gais kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 3 August 2021 at Nya Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Orgryte IS 1 - 0 Gais.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Nya Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Gais part of?
Orgryte IS vs Gais is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 34% chance of winning, Gais a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Orgryte IS and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Gais?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and Gais in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Gais (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.80x the league average against Gais's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.65x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
36%
2.79
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
1.56
0.74
Gais xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.42
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.0 | 15.7 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.7%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.74 for Gais, a combined total of 1.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orgryte IS come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 5D 5L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.08 for Gais. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Orgryte IS's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 0.85 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Gais in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Gais have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Gais away?
Gais's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.00 PPG; Gais away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Gais in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gais have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
3
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Gais?
From 5 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Gais have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Gais 4-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Gais see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Orgryte IS) and 0% (Gais) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Orgryte IS and 0% for Gais.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gais in 50%; Orgryte IS have failed to score in 67% of games; Gais in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 0% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 0% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out Gais 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Gais 1-0 at Nya Ullevi, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 0.81 xG and Gais 0.74 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Gais attack 0.65 / defence 0.93, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 34% | Draw 36% | Gais 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Orgryte IS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 38%, Gais 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Gais's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.08 PPG, Gais 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.