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Poisson model rates IK brage at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Umeå FC vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Umeå FC and IK brage meet at Umea Energi Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
IK brage have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
IK brage's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Umeå FC 1.01 xG and IK brage 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Umeå FC attack 0.823 / defence 1.243 | IK brage attack 1.056 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.106. Data: 4 Umeå FC games / 34 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Umeå FC 26% | Draw 26% | IK brage 47%. Fair-value odds: Umeå FC 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | IK brage 2.13. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Umeå FC vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Umea Energi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D • IK brage away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | CS 3
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Umeå FC 26% | Draw 26% | IK brage 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Umeå FC 1.01 / IK brage 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Umeå FC attack 0.823 / def 1.243 | IK brage attack 1.056 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: IK brage (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Umeå FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
IK brage xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Umeå FC vs IK brage kick off?
Umeå FC vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Umea Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Umeå FC vs IK brage?
Umeå FC 0 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Umeå FC vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Umea Energi Arena.
What competition is Umeå FC vs IK brage part of?
Umeå FC vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Umeå FC vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Umeå FC a 26% chance of winning, IK brage a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Umeå FC and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Umeå FC vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and IK brage?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Umeå FC and IK brage in?
• IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D • IK brage away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | CS 3
What do the betting odds say about Umeå FC vs IK brage?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture