🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Landskrona BoIS host Sandviken at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Sandviken's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 0.90 (Sandviken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Sandviken 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Sandviken winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Landskrona BoIS trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Sandviken trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 50% versus Sandviken 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 53% | Sandviken 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 2.00 xG and Sandviken 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.165 / defence 1.072 | Sandviken attack 1.096 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.119. Sandviken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Landskrona BoIS games / 34 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 53% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 25%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Sandviken 4.00. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Sandviken 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights