🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Umeå FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Paskbergsvallen plays host to Varbergs BoIS FC versus Umeå FC in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Monday 21 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 3W 5D 2L at Paskbergsvallen — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.46 xG and Umeå FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.043 / defence 0.990 | Umeå FC attack 0.693 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.173. Data: 33 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 3 Umeå FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 53% | Draw 27% | Umeå FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Umeå FC 4.76. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights