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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Umea Energi Arena to take on Umeå FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 May 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Landskrona BoIS's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Umeå FC 1.02 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Umeå FC attack 0.721 / defence 1.159 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.212 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.275. Umeå FC's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 Umeå FC games / 35 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Umeå FC 21% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 55%. Fair-value odds: Umeå FC 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Landskrona BoIS 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

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