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Poisson rates IK brage at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Ostersunds FK encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

IK brage's home record at Domnarvsvallen: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Domnarvsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Ostersunds FK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IK brage 0.90 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: IK brage have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Ostersunds FK have managed just 1 wins.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives IK brage a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

IK brage in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 43% versus Ostersunds FK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 45% | Ostersunds FK 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.24 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.809 / defence 0.994 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.865 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.280. Data: 35 IK brage games / 35 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: IK brage 39% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 33%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Ostersunds FK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 30% | Ostersunds FK 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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