Trelleborg 1-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 6W 1D 3L at Vångavallen — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Trelleborg are significantly better at Vångavallen than their overall form suggests.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ostersunds FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ostersunds FK's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Trelleborg) versus 0.70 (Ostersunds FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Trelleborg in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 63% versus Ostersunds FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 47% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.58 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.031 / defence 0.849 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.790 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.394. Data: 32 Trelleborg games / 2 Ostersunds FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 52% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 22%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Ostersunds FK 4.55. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 60% | Ostersunds FK 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 52% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Trelleborg 1.58 / Ostersunds FK 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.031 / def 0.849 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.790 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Ostersunds FK xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Trelleborg 1 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 52% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 1.03x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.96
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.51
0.94
Ostersunds FK xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.94 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 11W 10D 9L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 8W 9D 13L from 30 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. Ostersunds FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.43 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 5D 4L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.10 PPG overall record — Ostersunds FK travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 11W 10D 9L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.80 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
2
Draws
4
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Ostersunds FK 2-0 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 60%, Ostersunds FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Trelleborg) and 47% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 40%; Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 40% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Trelleborg's recent games and 47% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 3, as Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.58 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.94 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.85 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.79 / defence 1.10, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 52% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 22%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 47%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.43 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.