Ostersunds FK 1-0 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 41%, yet in-form Dalkurd FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jämtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus Dalkurd FF in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 23 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ostersunds FK have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ostersunds FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Dalkurd FF (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 Superettan outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dalkurd FF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Dalkurd FF are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.44 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.942 / defence 1.318 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.692 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.396. Data: 3 Ostersunds FK games / 3 Dalkurd FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 26% | Dalkurd FF 33%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Dalkurd FF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dalkurd FF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 26% | Dalkurd FF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.44 / Dalkurd FF 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.942 / def 1.318 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.692 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Dalkurd FF xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 0 Dalkurd FF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 41% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Dalkurd FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Dalkurd FF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Dalkurd FF's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Dalkurd FF's attack (0.69x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.90
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.72
1.27
Dalkurd FF xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.27 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. Ostersunds FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Dalkurd FF, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dalkurd FF by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ostersunds FK heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Dalkurd FF in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
Dalkurd FF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
0
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Dalkurd FF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when Dalkurd FF 1-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Dalkurd FF?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Dalkurd FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 100% of Dalkurd FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 50% of Dalkurd FF's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Dalkurd FF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dalkurd FF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Dalkurd FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Dalkurd FF 1-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.44 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.27 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dalkurd FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.94 / defence 1.32 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.69 / defence 1.12, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 26% | Dalkurd FF 33%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 100%, Dalkurd FF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dalkurd FF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Ostersunds FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ostersunds FK scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dalkurd FF managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.