Jonkopings Sodra 2-3 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Trelleborg travel to Stadsparksvallen to take on Jonkopings Sodra. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jonkopings Sodra at Stadsparksvallen this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Jonkopings Sodra) versus 0.70 (Trelleborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jonkopings Sodra, 0 for Trelleborg and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jonkopings Sodra trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Trelleborg trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 50% versus Trelleborg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 43% | Trelleborg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.56 xG and Trelleborg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.006 / defence 1.118 | Trelleborg attack 0.807 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.359. Data: 33 Jonkopings Sodra games / 33 Trelleborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 45% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Trelleborg 3.33. Jonkopings Sodra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jonkopings Sodra at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jonkopings Sodra 40% | Trelleborg 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 45% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.56 / Trelleborg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.006 / def 1.118 | Trelleborg attack 0.807 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Trelleborg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Jonkopings Sodra 2 - 3 Trelleborg.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 45% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg?
Record (2 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 1W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.00
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.78
1.23
Trelleborg xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.23 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Jonkopings Sodra have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 10W 8D 12L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Trelleborg's form line: 11W 10D 9L from 30 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.27 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (6W 5D 4L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 3W 7D 5L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.40 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 11W 10D 9L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Trelleborg away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.53 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jonkopings Sodra
1
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 3, Trelleborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2023, when Trelleborg 2-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 53%, Trelleborg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 40% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 67% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 40% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-3 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.56 xG and Trelleborg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Trelleborg outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Trelleborg attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 45% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 30%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 43%, Trelleborg 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 PPG, Trelleborg 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.