Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Akropolis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Akropolis travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.70 xG and Akropolis 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.041 / defence 1.048 | Akropolis attack 0.742 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 0.754. Akropolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Landskrona BoIS games / 2 Akropolis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 64% | Draw 23% | Akropolis 12%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.56 | Draw 4.35 | Akropolis 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 64% | Draw 23% | Akropolis 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 36% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.70 / Akropolis 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.041 / def 1.048 | Akropolis attack 0.742 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.208 / away 0.754 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Akropolis xG
36%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 1 Akropolis.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 64% chance of winning, Akropolis a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Akropolis will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Akropolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Akropolis in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 1.04x the league average against Akropolis's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akropolis's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.7%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
64%
1.55
23%
4.32
12%
8.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.29
0.59
Akropolis xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
8.06
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
56%
1.80
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
36%
2.79
2%
44.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 10.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Akropolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.59 for Akropolis, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Akropolis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
Akropolis
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
1
Akropolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Akropolis?
From 2 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, Akropolis have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Akropolis last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2021, when Akropolis 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Akropolis?
Akropolis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Akropolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Landskrona BoIS and Akropolis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 3, as Landskrona BoIS and Akropolis drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.70 xG and Akropolis 0.59 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Akropolis attack 0.74 / defence 1.35, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 64% | Draw 23% | Akropolis 12%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.