AFC Eskilstuna 0-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna host Gais at Tunavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.41 xG and Gais 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.199 / defence 1.032 | Gais attack 0.883 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 0.774. Data: 2 AFC Eskilstuna games / 2 Gais games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 53% | Draw 29% | Gais 18%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Gais 5.56. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 53% | Draw 29% | Gais 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.41 / Gais 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.199 / def 1.032 | Gais attack 0.883 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.181 / away 0.774 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Gais xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais?
AFC Eskilstuna 0 - 0 Gais.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 53% chance of winning, Gais a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Gais?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Gais in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.39
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.11
0.71
Gais xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
4%
23.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.71 for Gais, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Pre-Season
Gais
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Eskilstuna and Gais runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Gais won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Gais specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Eskilstuna
2
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, Gais have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2023, when Gais 3-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at AFC Eskilstuna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 3, as AFC Eskilstuna and Gais drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.41 xG and Gais 0.71 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.20 / defence 1.03 against Gais attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 53% | Draw 29% | Gais 18%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.