Skövde AIK 1-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Skövde AIK at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK meet at Södermalms IP in Superettan (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Skövde AIK's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Skövde AIK at home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Ostersunds FK (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ostersunds FK have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Skövde AIK's favour (2.10 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Skövde AIK 5–1 Ostersunds FK — a Skövde AIK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Skövde AIK — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 56% versus Ostersunds FK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 56% | Ostersunds FK 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.05 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.817 / defence 0.713 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.745 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 0.952. Ostersunds FK's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.51. Skövde AIK have a tight defence (rating 0.713), which is pulling Ostersunds FK's projected output down. Data: built from Skövde AIK's last 37 games and Ostersunds FK's last 37.
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 48% | Draw 36% | Ostersunds FK 17%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.09 | Draw 2.81 | Ostersunds FK 6.02. Skövde AIK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS Yes probability 27% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Ostersunds FK's lower xG of 0.51 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Skövde AIK are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 79% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Skövde AIK 40% (last 10 home games) | Ostersunds FK 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 8 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 48% | Draw 36% | Ostersunds FK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% (Under 79%) | BTTS Yes 27% (No 73%) | xG Skövde AIK 1.05 / Ostersunds FK 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.817 / def 0.713 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.745 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.280 / away 0.952 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Ostersunds FK xG
27%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK FAQs
What time does Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK?
Skövde AIK 1 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 8) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 48% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 17% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (73%).
Will Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (79%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Skövde AIK's attack rating (0.82) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.74x) against Skövde AIK's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.51.
These ratings are built from Skövde AIK's last 37 games and Ostersunds FK's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (20.7%), 1-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
48%
2.09
36%
2.81
17%
6.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
21.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
1.56
0.51
Ostersunds FK xG
2.09
48%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
6.02
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.74
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
60%
1.66
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.0 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 22.1 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.5%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 0.51 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 1.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Skövde AIK come into this having played 62 games, going 21W 18D 23L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.24 PPG from 62 outings (18W 23D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Skövde AIK against 1.24 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Skövde AIK's home form reads 14W 10D 7L across their last 31 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 31 away games (6W 12D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.27 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Skövde AIK (Home) vs Ostersunds FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Skövde AIK
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK Form FAQs
What form are Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 21W 18D 23L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 23D 21L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.68 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 25 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Skövde AIK won Skövde AIK 5-1 Ostersunds FK on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Skövde AIK have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Skövde AIK
1
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Skövde AIK have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2024: Ostersunds FK 2-2 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK?
Skövde AIK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 52%, Ostersunds FK 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Skövde AIK) and 36% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 55% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 36% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 64% of Ostersunds FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Skövde AIK edge out Ostersunds FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.05 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.51 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.82 / defence 0.71 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.74 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 48% | Draw 36% | Ostersunds FK 17%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 47% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 56%, Ostersunds FK 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.31 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Skövde AIK win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.