Oddevold 1-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 8 as Oddevold welcome IK brage to Rimnersvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
IK brage's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.05 xG and IK brage 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.876 / defence 0.950 | IK brage attack 1.040 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 0.945. Data: 7 Oddevold games / 37 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 37% | Draw 32% | IK brage 31%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | IK brage 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oddevold at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 37% | Draw 32% | IK brage 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Oddevold 1.05 / IK brage 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.876 / def 0.950 | IK brage attack 1.040 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.279 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
0.93
IK brage xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs IK brage kick off?
Oddevold vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs IK brage?
Oddevold 1 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Oddevold vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs IK brage part of?
Oddevold vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 37% chance of winning, IK brage a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Oddevold and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oddevold and IK brage in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. IK brage away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oddevold's attack rating (0.88) and IK brage's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
37%
2.71
32%
3.08
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Oddevold xG
Total xG
1.99
0.93
IK brage xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.90
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Oddevold and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Oddevold and 0.93 for IK brage, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Pre-Season
IK brage
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oddevold and IK brage runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2025, when Oddevold won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Oddevold
1
Draws
0
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and IK brage?
From 5 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 4, IK brage have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when IK brage 3-4 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and IK brage?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Oddevold and IK brage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold and IK brage finished level at 1-1 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.05 xG and IK brage 0.93 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.88 / defence 0.95 against IK brage attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 37% | Draw 32% | IK brage 31%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.