Trelleborg 0-0 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and Helsingborg meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 3W 3D 4L at Vångavallen — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Helsingborg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Helsingborg have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Trelleborg lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 63% versus Helsingborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 63% | Helsingborg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.20 xG and Helsingborg 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.933 / defence 1.180 | Helsingborg attack 1.070 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 0.981. Data: 37 Trelleborg games / 37 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 35% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 37%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Helsingborg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 40% | Helsingborg 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 35% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Trelleborg 1.20 / Helsingborg 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.933 / def 1.180 | Helsingborg attack 1.070 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.312 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Helsingborg xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Helsingborg kick off?
Trelleborg vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Trelleborg 0 - 0 Helsingborg.
Where is Trelleborg vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Helsingborg part of?
Trelleborg vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 35% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Trelleborg and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Helsingborg?
Record (4 meetings): Trelleborg 2W | Draws 2 | Helsingborg 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Helsingborg in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.93x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (1.07x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.58
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.43
1.24
Helsingborg xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.24 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 23W 15D 22L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Helsingborg's form line: 12W 14D 34L from 60 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Trelleborg are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helsingborg.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 4W 8D 18L from 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trelleborg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 0.90 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Helsingborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 12W 14D 34L in their last 60 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Helsingborg away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Helsingborg away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trelleborg won 0-3 on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
4
Draws
1
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Helsingborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 3, Helsingborg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Helsingborg 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Helsingborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 57%, Helsingborg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Trelleborg) and 50% (Helsingborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Trelleborg's games and 57% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Trelleborg's matches and 50% of Helsingborg's.
Do Trelleborg and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Trelleborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg and Helsingborg finished level at 0-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.20 xG and Helsingborg 1.24 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Helsingborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.93 / defence 1.18 against Helsingborg attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 35% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 37%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 63%, Helsingborg 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.