Ostersunds FK 4-3 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK host Gefle IF at Jämtkraft Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ostersunds FK at Jämtkraft Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Gefle IF have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gefle IF away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Ostersunds FK have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ostersunds FK register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Gefle IF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ostersunds FK, 0 for Gefle IF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Gefle IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ostersunds FK 67% and Gefle IF 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 53% | Gefle IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.06 xG and Gefle IF 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.965 / defence 0.988 | Gefle IF attack 0.854 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.931. Data: 38 Ostersunds FK games / 38 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 40% | Draw 35% | Gefle IF 25%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Gefle IF 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. This conflicts with form data: Ostersunds FK 80% | Gefle IF 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 40% | Draw 35% | Gefle IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.06 / Gefle IF 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.965 / def 0.988 | Gefle IF attack 0.854 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.327 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Gefle IF xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 May 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF?
Ostersunds FK 4 - 3 Gefle IF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 40% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Gefle IF?
Record (2 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 2 | Gefle IF 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Gefle IF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Gefle IF (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.96x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
40%
2.52
35%
2.83
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
1.84
0.79
Gefle IF xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.79 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 10W 12D 8L from 30 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Gefle IF, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 11L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.40 PPG, Gefle IF on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 6W 6D 3L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gefle IF's away record stands at 2W 6D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Gefle IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 10W 12D 8L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Gefle IF away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.60 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Gefle IF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Gefle IF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
3
Draws
0
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Gefle IF have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2024, when Gefle IF 0-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Gefle IF?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ostersunds FK at 87%, Gefle IF at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Ostersunds FK) and 47% (Gefle IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gefle IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Gefle IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of Ostersunds FK's games and 60% of Gefle IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 47% of Gefle IF's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Gefle IF 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Gefle IF 4-3 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.06 xG and Gefle IF 0.79 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gefle IF outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Gefle IF attack 0.85 / defence 0.82, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 40% | Draw 35% | Gefle IF 25%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 53%, Gefle IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Gefle IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.40 PPG, Gefle IF 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gefle IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.