Landskrona BoIS 0-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host Orebro SK at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2W 4D 4L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Orebro SK's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 1.20 (Orebro SK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Orebro SK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Orebro SK 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–4 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 62% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 57% | Orebro SK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG and Orebro SK 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.164 / defence 0.865 | Orebro SK attack 0.969 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.940. Data: 37 Landskrona BoIS games / 37 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 61% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 15%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Orebro SK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Orebro SK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 61% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.82 / Orebro SK 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.164 / def 0.865 | Orebro SK attack 0.969 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.940 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Orebro SK xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Landskrona BoIS 0 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 61% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK?
Record (4 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 2W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.16) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.08
15%
6.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.61
0.79
Orebro SK xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
6.80
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
41.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.79 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 17D 21L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.18 PPG from 60 outings (18W 17D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.38 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 14W 9D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (6W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.27 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 17D 21L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Orebro SK away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.70 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Orebro SK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
3
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Orebro SK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Orebro SK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 73%, Orebro SK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Landskrona BoIS and 67% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 53% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 67% of Orebro SK's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Landskrona BoIS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK finished level at 0-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG and Orebro SK 0.79 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against Orebro SK attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 61% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 15%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 57%, Orebro SK 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.38 PPG, Orebro SK 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.