Ostersunds FK 0-2 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 11 as Ostersunds FK welcome Sandviken to Jämtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 5W 4D 1L at Jämtkraft Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandviken — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Sandviken haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 1.50 (Sandviken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.93 xG and Sandviken 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.191 / defence 1.184 | Sandviken attack 0.832 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 0.999. Sandviken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Ostersunds FK games / 10 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 59% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 19%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Sandviken 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Ostersunds FK (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 59% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.93 / Sandviken 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.191 / def 1.184 | Sandviken attack 0.832 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.337 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sandviken xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 2 Sandviken.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 59% chance of winning, Sandviken a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Sandviken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Sandviken in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Sandviken (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.19x the league average against Sandviken's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
59%
1.68
22%
4.55
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.92
0.98
Sandviken xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
37.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.98 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. Sandviken haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.50 PPG, Sandviken on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Early Season
Sandviken
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Ostersunds FK or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sandviken in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Sandviken runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2025, when Sandviken won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
3
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Sandviken?
From 5 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Sandviken have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Ostersunds FK 2-1 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Sandviken?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Sandviken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 50% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 50% of Sandviken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Sandviken tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Ostersunds FK 0-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.93 xG and Sandviken 0.98 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Sandviken outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.19 / defence 1.18 against Sandviken attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 59% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 19%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Sandviken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Sandviken 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.50 PPG, Sandviken 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandviken conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.