Oddevold 1-2 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Oddevold at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Oddevold and Ostersunds FK meet at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Ostersunds FK have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ostersunds FK away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.12 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.825 / defence 0.941 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.695 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 0.984. Data: 9 Oddevold games / 39 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 46% | Draw 33% | Ostersunds FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Ostersunds FK 4.76. Oddevold hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Ostersunds FK's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oddevold are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oddevold if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 46% | Draw 33% | Ostersunds FK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 32% | xG Oddevold 1.12 / Ostersunds FK 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.825 / def 0.941 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.695 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.300 / away 0.984 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Ostersunds FK xG
32%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK?
Oddevold 1 - 2 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 46% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Oddevold and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oddevold and Ostersunds FK in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Ostersunds FK away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Oddevold's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.69x) against Oddevold's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
46%
2.16
33%
3.02
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Oddevold xG
Total xG
1.76
0.64
Ostersunds FK xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Oddevold and 0.64 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oddevold have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Oddevold
1
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Ostersunds FK?
From 5 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Oddevold 1-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Ostersunds FK?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Ostersunds FK defy the odds to beat Oddevold 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Oddevold 1-2 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.12 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.64 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ostersunds FK outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.69 / defence 1.04, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 46% | Draw 33% | Ostersunds FK 21%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Ostersunds FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.