Orgryte IS 3-0 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 40%, yet in-form Orgryte IS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Gefle IF at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gefle IF stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Gefle IF have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Orgryte IS have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Gefle IF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Orgryte IS have won 2, Gefle IF 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Orgryte IS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gefle IF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 53% versus Gefle IF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | Gefle IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.34 xG and Gefle IF 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.908 / defence 1.371 | Gefle IF attack 1.053 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.004. Data: 40 Orgryte IS games / 40 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 40%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Gefle IF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gefle IF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orgryte IS (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gefle IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 60% | Gefle IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Orgryte IS 1.34 / Gefle IF 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.908 / def 1.371 | Gefle IF attack 1.053 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Gefle IF xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF?
Orgryte IS 3 - 0 Gefle IF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 35% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Orgryte IS and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Gefle IF?
Record (2 meetings): Orgryte IS 2W | Draws 0 | Gefle IF 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Gefle IF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Gefle IF (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.91x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
35%
2.86
25%
3.96
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.79
1.45
Gefle IF xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
10%
9.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.45 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 6D 14L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Gefle IF sit at 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.20 PPG, Gefle IF on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Orgryte IS's home form reads 4W 5D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Gefle IF have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (2W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Gefle IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 10W 6D 14L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Gefle IF away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.13 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Orgryte IS go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2024, when Orgryte IS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Gefle IF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
0
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 4, Gefle IF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when Gefle IF 2-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Gefle IF?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 60%, Gefle IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Orgryte IS) and 47% (Gefle IF).
On the defensive side: Gefle IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Gefle IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Orgryte IS's games and 60% of Gefle IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 47% of Gefle IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orgryte IS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gefle IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Gefle IF 3-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.34 xG and Gefle IF 1.45 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gefle IF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.91 / defence 1.37 against Gefle IF attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 40%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Orgryte IS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 53%, Gefle IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Gefle IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.20 PPG, Gefle IF 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.