Landskrona BoIS 2-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Trelleborg travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 June 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2W 4D 4L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trelleborg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 1.60 (Trelleborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Landskrona BoIS: 3 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Trelleborg, with 3 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 3–0 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Landskrona BoIS and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 62% and Trelleborg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 57% | Trelleborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG and Trelleborg 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.021 / defence 0.789 | Trelleborg attack 0.917 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 0.999. Landskrona BoIS's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Landskrona BoIS games / 40 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 23%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Trelleborg 4.35. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Trelleborg's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 35% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Trelleborg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.15 / Trelleborg 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.021 / def 0.789 | Trelleborg attack 0.917 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.310 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Trelleborg xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 46% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
Record (6 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 3W | Draws 3 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.22
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
1.87
0.72
Trelleborg xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
7%
13.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.72 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 17D 21L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (23W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.38 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 14W 9D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.43 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Trelleborg in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 17D 21L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Trelleborg away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.70 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trelleborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Landskrona BoIS
3
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, Trelleborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Trelleborg 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Landskrona BoIS at 73%, Trelleborg at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Landskrona BoIS) and 60% (Trelleborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 70% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 60% of Trelleborg's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Trelleborg 2-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG and Trelleborg 0.72 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.02 / defence 0.79 against Trelleborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 23%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 57%, Trelleborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.38 PPG, Trelleborg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.