Sandviken 3-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sandviken at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandviken host Orgryte IS at Arena Jernvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Sandviken haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sandviken at 1.50 PPG versus Orgryte IS's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sandviken, 1 for Orgryte IS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 3–2 with Sandviken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.38 xG and Orgryte IS 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.969 / defence 1.024 | Orgryte IS attack 1.074 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 0.984. Data: 9 Sandviken games / 39 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 43% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 29%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Orgryte IS 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandviken at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandviken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 43% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Sandviken 1.38 / Orgryte IS 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.969 / def 1.024 | Orgryte IS attack 1.074 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.300 / away 0.984 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Orgryte IS xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Sandviken vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Sandviken 3 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Sandviken vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Orgryte IS part of?
Sandviken vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 43% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sandviken and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Orgryte IS?
Record (2 meetings): Sandviken 1W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Sandviken and Orgryte IS in?
Sandviken (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 0.97x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.57
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.46
1.08
Orgryte IS xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
7%
13.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.08 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandviken come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. Sandviken haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Orgryte IS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Orgryte IS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Sandviken — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Sandviken are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 0%.
Defensively: Orgryte IS in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Sandviken or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandviken and Orgryte IS runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2025, when Orgryte IS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandviken's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sandviken
1
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Orgryte IS?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2025, when Sandviken 1-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandviken's recent matches and 0% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sandviken's recent games and 0% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Orgryte IS 3-1 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.38 xG and Orgryte IS 1.08 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Orgryte IS attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 43% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 29%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 50%, Orgryte IS 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Sandviken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandviken scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.