Ostersunds FK 1-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jämtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 30 July 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK at Jämtkraft Arena this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Jonkopings Sodra arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ostersunds FK, 1 for Jonkopings Sodra and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ostersunds FK half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 42% versus Jonkopings Sodra 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 49% | Jonkopings Sodra 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.10 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.653 / defence 1.236 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.850 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.269. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Ostersunds FK games / 45 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 29% | Draw 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 40%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jonkopings Sodra are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 40% | Jonkopings Sodra 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 29% | Draw 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.10 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.653 / def 1.236 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.850 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Jonkopings Sodra xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 29% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.65x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (0.85x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
29%
3.41
30%
3.29
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.44
1.33
Jonkopings Sodra xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.33 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 45 games, going 4W 10D 31L for 0.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jonkopings Sodra sit at 1.11 PPG from 45 outings (13W 11D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 4W 4D 13L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Jonkopings Sodra have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.22 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 10D 31L in their last 45 games (0.49 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Jonkopings Sodra's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.76 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
3
Draws
1
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 1-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 48%, Jonkopings Sodra 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Ostersunds FK) and 52% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 38% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 57% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 52% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra finished level at 1-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.10 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.33 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.65 / defence 1.24 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.85 / defence 1.14, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 29% | Draw 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 40%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 49%, Jonkopings Sodra 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jonkopings Sodra arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.