Jonkopings Sodra 0-1 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadsparksvallen plays host to Jonkopings Sodra versus Dalkurd FF in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 23 July 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jonkopings Sodra's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadsparksvallen this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dalkurd FF have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalkurd FF's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Dalkurd FF half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 75% versus Dalkurd FF 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 75% | Dalkurd FF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 2.21 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.054 / defence 1.262 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.652 / defence 1.433. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.279. Dalkurd FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.433 — this is suppressing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Jonkopings Sodra games / 14 Dalkurd FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 62% | Draw 22% | Dalkurd FF 16%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Dalkurd FF 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Jonkopings Sodra (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jonkopings Sodra are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Jonkopings Sodra 60% | Dalkurd FF 29%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 62% | Draw 22% | Dalkurd FF 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 2.21 / Dalkurd FF 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.054 / def 1.262 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.652 / def 1.433 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Dalkurd FF xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF?
Jonkopings Sodra 0 - 1 Dalkurd FF.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 62% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Dalkurd FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Dalkurd FF in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jonkopings Sodra's attack rating (1.05) and Dalkurd FF's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalkurd FF's attack (0.65x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.50
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
3.27
1.05
Dalkurd FF xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
11%
9.13
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
2%
58.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.05 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 3D 9L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalkurd FF sit at 0.94 PPG from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dalkurd FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Jonkopings Sodra against 0.94 for Dalkurd FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jonkopings Sodra's home form reads 2W 1D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalkurd FF have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalkurd FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 0.94 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Dalkurd FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Dalkurd FF away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.00 PPG; Dalkurd FF away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jonkopings Sodra
0
Draws
2
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, Dalkurd FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2022, when Dalkurd FF 5-2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Dalkurd FF?
Dalkurd FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dalkurd FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 71%, Dalkurd FF 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 43% (Dalkurd FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalkurd FF in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Dalkurd FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 29% of Dalkurd FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jonkopings Sodra's matches and 43% of Dalkurd FF's.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Dalkurd FF tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Dalkurd FF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dalkurd FF defy the odds to beat Jonkopings Sodra 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalkurd FF beat Jonkopings Sodra 0-1 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 2.21 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.05 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jonkopings Sodra fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.05 / defence 1.26 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.65 / defence 1.43, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 62% | Draw 22% | Dalkurd FF 16%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Dalkurd FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 75%, Dalkurd FF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalkurd FF's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 0.94 PPG, Dalkurd FF 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalkurd FF win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Dalkurd FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.