IK brage 1-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 August 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's home record at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
IK brage are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IK brage, 0 for Ostersunds FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 3–1 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IK brage in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 63% versus Ostersunds FK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 61% | Ostersunds FK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.72 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.014 / defence 0.907 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.580 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.292. Data: 46 IK brage games / 16 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 61% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 13%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Ostersunds FK 7.69. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: IK brage 60% | Ostersunds FK 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 61% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 42% | xG IK brage 1.72 / Ostersunds FK 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.014 / def 0.907 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.580 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: IK brage (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Ostersunds FK xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
IK brage vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 3 August 2022 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
IK brage 1 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is IK brage vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Ostersunds FK part of?
IK brage vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 61% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both IK brage and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Ostersunds FK?
Record (1 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 0 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are IK brage and Ostersunds FK in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
61%
1.64
26%
3.80
13%
7.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.40
0.68
Ostersunds FK xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
7.80
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
2%
43.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are IK brage and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for IK brage and 0.68 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage come into this having played 46 games, going 18W 14D 14L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 0.50 PPG from 46 outings (4W 11D 31L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IK brage's home form reads 10W 6D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.22 points per game from 23 outings (0W 5D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.76 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 18W 14D 14L in their last 46 games (1.48 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 11D 31L in their last 46 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Ostersunds FK away?
IK brage's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.57 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Ostersunds FK runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ostersunds FK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
IK brage's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
IK brage
1
Draws
4
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Ostersunds FK?
From 9 meetings on record, IK brage have won 4, Ostersunds FK have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when IK brage 2-4 Ostersunds FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 52%, Ostersunds FK 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (IK brage) and 44% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of IK brage's recent matches and 39% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of IK brage's recent games and 44% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Ostersunds FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.72 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.68 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.58 / defence 1.17, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 61% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 13%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 61%, Ostersunds FK 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IK brage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.