Halmstad 2-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Halmstad at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Örjans Vall to face Halmstad in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 July 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Halmstad's overall Superettan record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Halmstad have posted 5W 1D 4L at Örjans Vall — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Örjans Vall this season.
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Halmstad. A 0.50 PPG lead over Landskrona BoIS (2.20 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Halmstad lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Halmstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 53% versus Landskrona BoIS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 38% | Landskrona BoIS 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.79 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 1.159 / defence 0.918 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.826 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.290. Data: 15 Halmstad games / 45 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 54% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 18%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 5.56. Halmstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Halmstad are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Halmstad if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Halmstad 50% | Landskrona BoIS 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 54% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Halmstad 1.79 / Landskrona BoIS 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 1.159 / def 0.918 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.826 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Landskrona BoIS xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS?
Halmstad 2 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 54% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Halmstad and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): Halmstad 0W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Halmstad and Landskrona BoIS in?
Halmstad (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Halmstad's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.83x) against Halmstad's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.66
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.77
0.98
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
3%
33.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Halmstad and 0.98 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Halmstad's recent record stands at 16W 16D 13L from 45 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 16L across 45 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Halmstad against 1.44 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Halmstad have managed 7W 10D 5L from 22 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Halmstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.38 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 16W 16D 13L in their last 45 games (1.42 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 11D 16L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Halmstad's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.41 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Halmstad or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Halmstad
0
Draws
1
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Landskrona BoIS?
From 2 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when Halmstad 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 54%, Landskrona BoIS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Halmstad) and 50% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 27% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Halmstad's recent matches and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Halmstad's recent games and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Halmstad edge out Landskrona BoIS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Halmstad beat Landskrona BoIS 2-1 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.79 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.98 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 54% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 18%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 38%, Landskrona BoIS 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.42 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Halmstad win broke the near-deadlock. Halmstad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.