Vasteras SK FK 2-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Osters IF travel to Iver Arena to take on Vasteras SK FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 July 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 3W 5D 2L at Iver Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vasteras SK FK 1.20 PPG, Osters IF 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vasteras SK FK, 0 for Osters IF and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 60% versus Osters IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 56% | Osters IF 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.25 xG and Osters IF 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.080 / defence 1.166 | Osters IF attack 1.010 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.290. Osters IF's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Vasteras SK FK games / 45 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 29% | Draw 30% | Osters IF 41%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Osters IF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 70% | Osters IF 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 29% | Draw 30% | Osters IF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.25 / Osters IF 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.080 / def 1.166 | Osters IF attack 1.010 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Osters IF xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 29% chance of winning, Osters IF a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF?
Record (3 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 3 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vasteras SK FK's attack at 1.08x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
29%
3.46
30%
3.35
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.76
1.52
Osters IF xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
6%
15.80
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.52 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK's recent record stands at 12W 17D 16L from 45 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 12L across 45 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osters IF by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasteras SK FK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vasteras SK FK have managed 6W 10D 6L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osters IF's away record stands at 7W 8D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.29 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Osters IF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 12W 17D 16L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 19W 14D 12L in their last 45 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Osters IF away?
Osters IF's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.27 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Osters IF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
5
Draws
0
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Osters IF have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2023, when Osters IF 2-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 68%, Osters IF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Vasteras SK FK) and 36% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Osters IF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 54% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 36% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF finished level at 2-2 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.25 xG and Osters IF 1.52 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.08 / defence 1.17 against Osters IF attack 1.01 / defence 0.79, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 29% | Draw 30% | Osters IF 41%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 56%, Osters IF 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.