IK brage 3-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen plays host to IK brage versus IF Brommapojkarna in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 24 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IK brage have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, IK brage have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 2.06 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.128 / defence 0.936 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.905 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.382. IF Brommapojkarna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 IK brage games / 3 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 58% | Draw 21% | IF Brommapojkarna 21%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | IF Brommapojkarna 4.76. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 58% | Draw 21% | IF Brommapojkarna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG IK brage 2.06 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.128 / def 0.936 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.905 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: IK brage (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.17
IF Brommapojkarna xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna?
IK brage 3 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 58% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both IK brage and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and IF Brommapojkarna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and IF Brommapojkarna in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. IK brage home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IK brage's attack rating (1.13) and IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Brommapojkarna's attack (0.91x) against IK brage's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 33/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.76
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.24
1.17
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
3%
37.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are IK brage and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for IK brage and 1.17 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IK brage
0
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 2 meetings on record, IK brage have won 1, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2022, when IF Brommapojkarna 3-2 IK brage.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IK brage cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-1 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 2.06 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.17 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.13 / defence 0.94 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.91 / defence 1.32, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 58% | Draw 21% | IF Brommapojkarna 21%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.