Dalkurd FF 0-3 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Dalkurd FF versus Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Monday 2 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dalkurd FF have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Superettan outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dalkurd FF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osters IF's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Dalkurd FF against 2.20 for Osters IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 0.86 xG and Osters IF 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.812 / defence 0.908 | Osters IF attack 1.054 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.410. Osters IF's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 4 Dalkurd FF games / 34 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 24% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 48%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Osters IF 2.08. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 2 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 24% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Dalkurd FF 0.86 / Osters IF 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dalkurd FF attack 0.812 / def 0.908 | Osters IF attack 1.054 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Dalkurd FF xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Osters IF xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF kick off?
Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 May 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF?
Dalkurd FF 0 - 3 Osters IF.
Where is Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF part of?
Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Dalkurd FF a 24% chance of winning, Osters IF a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Dalkurd FF and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Osters IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalkurd FF and Osters IF in?
Dalkurd FF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D. Osters IF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dalkurd FF's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (1.05x) against Dalkurd FF's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
24%
4.18
28%
3.58
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Dalkurd FF xG
Total xG
2.21
1.35
Osters IF xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
6%
16.12
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.8 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dalkurd FF and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Dalkurd FF and 1.35 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Dalkurd FF have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Osters IF's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W. It's still early in the season for Osters IF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Dalkurd FF against 2.00 for Osters IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalkurd FF are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dalkurd FF have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Osters IF in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalkurd FF
Early Season
Osters IF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalkurd FF and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dalkurd FF
0
Draws
2
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Osters IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalkurd FF have won 0, Osters IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalkurd FF and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when Osters IF 2-0 Dalkurd FF.
Who has won more matches between Dalkurd FF and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalkurd FF home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalkurd FF play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Dalkurd FF's games and 100% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalkurd FF vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalkurd FF's recent games and 50% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dalkurd FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Dalkurd FF 0-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalkurd FF 0.86 xG and Osters IF 1.35 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dalkurd FF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Osters IF outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalkurd FF attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Osters IF attack 1.05 / defence 0.78, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalkurd FF 24% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 48%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalkurd FF 50%, Osters IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalkurd FF 2.00 PPG, Osters IF 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Dalkurd FF managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osters IF scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.