Gefle IF 3-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gefle IF host Landskrona BoIS at Gavlevallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gefle IF — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gefle IF at Gavlevallen this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Gefle IF are significantly better at Gavlevallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Landskrona BoIS are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gefle IF have won 0, Landskrona BoIS 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gefle IF in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 56% versus Landskrona BoIS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 52% | Landskrona BoIS 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.35 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 0.786 / defence 1.264 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.044 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.280. Gefle IF's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Gefle IF games / 57 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 31% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 45%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Landskrona BoIS 2.22. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 50% | Landskrona BoIS 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 31% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Gefle IF 1.35 / Landskrona BoIS 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 0.786 / def 1.264 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.044 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Landskrona BoIS xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Gefle IF 3 - 3 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 31% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): Gefle IF 0W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gefle IF's attack at 0.79x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
31%
3.27
24%
4.17
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
3.04
1.69
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
6%
17.70
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.69 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gefle IF's recent record stands at 9W 7D 11L from 27 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 11L across 27 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gefle IF on 1.26 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gefle IF have managed 7W 2D 4L from 13 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 5W 1D 7L across 13 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gefle IF are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 5D 11L in their last 27 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.77 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Gefle IF's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gefle IF
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when Landskrona BoIS 0-2 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 46%, Landskrona BoIS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Gefle IF) and 62% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gefle IF keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Gefle IF's recent matches and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Gefle IF's matches and 62% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 28, as Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS drew 3-3 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.35 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.69 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Gefle IF beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 0.79 / defence 1.26 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.04 / defence 1.09, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 31% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 45%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 52%, Landskrona BoIS 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.26 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gefle IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.