Osters IF 2-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees GIF Sundsvall travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 July 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF at Visma Arena this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Osters IF are significantly better at Visma Arena than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Osters IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Osters IF's 30% rate and GIF Sundsvall's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Osters IF, 1 for GIF Sundsvall and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 4–0 with Osters IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Osters IF in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 64% versus GIF Sundsvall 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 64% | GIF Sundsvall 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 2.18 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.184 / defence 0.702 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.729 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.139. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Osters IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Osters IF's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Osters IF games / 44 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 74% | Draw 17% | GIF Sundsvall 8%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | GIF Sundsvall 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (74%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 30% | GIF Sundsvall 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 74% | Draw 17% | GIF Sundsvall 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 39% | xG Osters IF 2.18 / GIF Sundsvall 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.184 / def 0.702 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.729 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.58
GIF Sundsvall xG
39%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Osters IF 2 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 74% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (4 meetings): Osters IF 2W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osters IF's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 3-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
74%
1.35
17%
5.79
8%
11.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
3 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.76
0.58
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.79
17%
Draw
11.76
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
11%
8.84
Win to Nil
41%
2.41
1%
103.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.58 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osters IF's recent record stands at 23W 11D 10L from 44 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 22L across 44 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osters IF by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osters IF have managed 13W 5D 4L from 22 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 4W 4D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.09 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 23W 11D 10L in their last 44 games (1.82 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Osters IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 2.00 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 15 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Osters IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Osters IF
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 7 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 5, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 15 June 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 0-4 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 46%, GIF Sundsvall 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Osters IF) and 41% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Osters IF's recent matches and 36% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Osters IF's recent games and 41% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat GIF Sundsvall 2-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 2.18 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.58 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.18 / defence 0.70 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.73 / defence 1.27, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 74% | Draw 17% | GIF Sundsvall 8%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 64%, GIF Sundsvall 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.