Orebro SK 0-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 15 as Orebro SK welcome Orgryte IS to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Behrn Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 1.10 (Orgryte IS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orebro SK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Orgryte IS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Orebro SK have won 1, Orgryte IS 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 3–0 with Orebro SK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 52% versus Orgryte IS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 59% | Orgryte IS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.85 xG and Orgryte IS 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.012 / defence 1.048 | Orgryte IS attack 1.134 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.169. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Orebro SK games / 44 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 48% | Draw 23% | Orgryte IS 29%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Orgryte IS 3.45. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 60% | Orgryte IS 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 48% | Draw 23% | Orgryte IS 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Orebro SK 1.85 / Orgryte IS 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.012 / def 1.048 | Orgryte IS attack 1.134 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Orgryte IS xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS?
Orebro SK 0 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS part of?
Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 48% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Orebro SK and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Orgryte IS?
Record (4 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Orgryte IS in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Orebro SK's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
48%
2.07
23%
4.41
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
3.24
1.39
Orgryte IS xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
5%
21.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.39 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 14D 18L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.11 PPG from 44 outings (13W 10D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.14 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Orebro SK's home form reads 9W 8D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (7W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.20 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 12W 14D 18L in their last 44 games (1.14 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Orgryte IS away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.67 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Orgryte IS runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Orgryte IS have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2023, when Orebro SK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
2
Draws
5
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Orgryte IS have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Orebro SK 1-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 48%, Orgryte IS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Orebro SK) and 52% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 33% of games; Orgryte IS in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 57% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Orebro SK's recent games and 52% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 15, as Orebro SK and Orgryte IS drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.85 xG and Orgryte IS 1.39 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Orgryte IS attack 1.13 / defence 1.27, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 48% | Draw 23% | Orgryte IS 29%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 59%, Orgryte IS 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.14 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.