Oddevold 0-3 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oddevold host Helsingborg at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 July 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oddevold — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 1L across 6 games at Rimnersvallen this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Oddevold are significantly better at Rimnersvallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Helsingborg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Helsingborg have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Helsingborg's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Oddevold's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Oddevold in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 64% versus Helsingborg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 57% | Helsingborg 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.14 xG and Helsingborg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.753 / defence 1.026 | Helsingborg attack 0.985 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.139. Oddevold's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Oddevold games / 44 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 35% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 36%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Helsingborg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Oddevold 67% | Helsingborg 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 35% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Oddevold 1.14 / Helsingborg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.753 / def 1.026 | Helsingborg attack 0.985 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Helsingborg xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Helsingborg kick off?
Oddevold vs Helsingborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Oddevold 0 - 3 Helsingborg.
Where is Oddevold vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Helsingborg part of?
Oddevold vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 35% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Oddevold and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Helsingborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oddevold and Helsingborg in?
Oddevold (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oddevold's attack rating (0.75) and Helsingborg's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.51
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.29
1.15
Helsingborg xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.15 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Oddevold have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 4W 5D 5L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg's form line: 5W 5D 4L from 14 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.21 PPG, Helsingborg on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oddevold have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Oddevold are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.00 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Helsingborg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Helsingborg away?
Helsingborg's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.50 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Oddevold or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oddevold and Helsingborg runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Helsingborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Oddevold
2
Draws
2
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Helsingborg?
From 5 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 1, Helsingborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Helsingborg 2-2 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 67%, Helsingborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Oddevold) and 67% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Oddevold keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Helsingborg in 33%; Helsingborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Oddevold's games and 50% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Oddevold's recent games and 67% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oddevold and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Helsingborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oddevold.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Oddevold 0-3 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.14 xG and Helsingborg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Oddevold fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Helsingborg outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against Helsingborg attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 35% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 36%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 57%, Helsingborg 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helsingborg's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.21 PPG, Helsingborg 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.