Varbergs BoIS FC 1-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Varberg Energi Arena to take on Varbergs BoIS FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 July 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC at Varberg Energi Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Landskrona BoIS are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Varbergs BoIS FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Landskrona BoIS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 52% versus Landskrona BoIS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 57% | Landskrona BoIS 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.23 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.031 / defence 1.355 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.204 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.153. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 44 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 25% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 53%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Landskrona BoIS 1.89. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 70% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 25% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.23 / Landskrona BoIS 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.031 / def 1.355 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.204 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Landskrona BoIS xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 22 July 2024 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 25% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (1.03) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
25%
4.05
23%
4.40
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
3.11
1.88
Landskrona BoIS xG
4.05
25%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
15%
6.56
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
4%
26.55
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.88 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 0.68 PPG on a 7W 9D 28L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 21W 9D 14L from 44 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Varbergs BoIS FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 0.77 PPG from 22 outings (4W 5D 13L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 9W 4D 9L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.55 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 7W 9D 28L in their last 44 games (0.68 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 21W 9D 14L in their last 44 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Landskrona BoIS's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 0.77 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2024, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS?
From 5 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 2-3 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 54%, Landskrona BoIS 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Varbergs BoIS FC and 64% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 59% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 64% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 15, as Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.23 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.88 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.35 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.20 / defence 0.83, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 25% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 53%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, Landskrona BoIS 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.