Skövde AIK 1-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Skövde AIK take on IK brage.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees IK brage travel to Södermalms IP to take on Skövde AIK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 July 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Skövde AIK — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Skövde AIK at Södermalms IP this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Södermalms IP. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Skövde AIK are significantly better at Södermalms IP than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IK brage have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IK brage — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Skövde AIK, 1 for IK brage and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with IK brage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Skövde AIK in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IK brage in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 46% versus IK brage 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 52% | IK brage 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 0.85 xG and IK brage 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.656 / defence 0.952 | IK brage attack 0.805 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.164. Skövde AIK's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Skövde AIK games / 44 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 32% | Draw 34% | IK brage 34%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | IK brage 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Skövde AIK's lower xG of 0.85 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Skövde AIK 10% | IK brage 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 32% | Draw 34% | IK brage 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Skövde AIK 0.85 / IK brage 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.656 / def 0.952 | IK brage attack 0.805 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
0.89
IK brage xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs IK brage kick off?
Skövde AIK vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Skövde AIK 1 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Skövde AIK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs IK brage part of?
Skövde AIK vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 32% chance of winning, IK brage a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Skövde AIK and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and IK brage?
Record (4 meetings): Skövde AIK 0W | Draws 3 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Skövde AIK and IK brage in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Skövde AIK's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.14
34%
2.93
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
1.75
0.89
IK brage xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 15.6 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 0.89 for IK brage, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Skövde AIK's recent record stands at 14W 9D 21L from 44 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 17L across 44 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Skövde AIK on 1.16 PPG, IK brage on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Skövde AIK have managed 11W 4D 7L from 22 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Skövde AIK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IK brage's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IK brage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.30 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 14W 9D 21L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while IK brage have gone 18W 9D 17L in their last 44 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or IK brage away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.68 PPG; IK brage away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, IK brage in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Skövde AIK and IK brage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Skövde AIK's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Skövde AIK
3
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and IK brage?
From 6 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 1, IK brage have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2024, when IK brage 2-0 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Skövde AIK see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 32%, IK brage 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Skövde AIK) and 36% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Skövde AIK have failed to score in 32% of games; IK brage in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 41% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 36% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Skövde AIK defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat IK brage 1-0 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 0.85 xG and IK brage 0.89 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IK brage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.66 / defence 0.95 against IK brage attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 32% | Draw 34% | IK brage 34%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Skövde AIK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 52%, IK brage 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
IK brage's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.16 PPG, IK brage 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Skövde AIK win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.