Orgryte IS 1-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Trelleborg at 34% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg encounter.

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Match Analysis

Orgryte IS host Trelleborg at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan (matchday 9). Kick-off is Wednesday 22 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Orgryte IS — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Orgryte IS have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Trelleborg stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Trelleborg have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orgryte IS at 1.60 PPG versus Trelleborg's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Orgryte IS's games and 70% of Trelleborg's (from Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and Trelleborg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Trelleborg have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Orgryte IS.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Orgryte IS 0–2 Trelleborg — a Trelleborg win.

Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Data

Orgryte IS trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Trelleborg trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 55% versus Trelleborg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | Trelleborg 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.04 xG and Trelleborg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.909 / defence 1.309 | Trelleborg attack 0.862 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.931. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 1.309 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trelleborg's projected output up. Data: built from Orgryte IS's last 38 games and Trelleborg's last 38.

Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 33% | Draw 33% | Trelleborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.02 | Draw 2.99 | Trelleborg 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Trelleborg 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Orgryte IS 60% (last 10 home games) | Trelleborg 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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