Orebro SK 0-1 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orebro SK at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orebro SK vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orebro SK host Utsikten at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 23 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Behrn Arena. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Utsikten stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Utsikten's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orebro SK at 1.20 PPG versus Utsikten's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Orebro SK, 1 for Utsikten and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2023, ended 5–1 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Utsikten in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus Utsikten 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 53% | Utsikten 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.60 xG and Utsikten 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.145 / defence 1.017 | Utsikten attack 1.075 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 0.967. Data: 38 Orebro SK games / 38 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 48% | Draw 28% | Utsikten 24%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Utsikten 4.17. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Orebro SK 40% | Utsikten 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 48% | Draw 28% | Utsikten 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Orebro SK 1.60 / Utsikten 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.145 / def 1.017 | Utsikten attack 1.075 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.333 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Utsikten xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Utsikten kick off?
Orebro SK vs Utsikten kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Orebro SK 0 - 1 Utsikten.
Where is Orebro SK vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Utsikten part of?
Orebro SK vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 48% chance of winning, Utsikten a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Orebro SK and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Utsikten?
Record (4 meetings): Orebro SK 3W | Draws 0 | Utsikten 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Utsikten in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Utsikten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Orebro SK's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
48%
2.06
28%
3.57
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.66
1.06
Utsikten xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
5%
21.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.06 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Utsikten, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 20L across 60 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.18 PPG, Utsikten on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 12W 10D 8L from 30 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utsikten's away record stands at 13W 4D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.50 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Utsikten away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.53 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Utsikten in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Utsikten runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Orebro SK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Orebro SK
1
Draws
3
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 4, Utsikten have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Orebro SK 2-1 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Utsikten?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 40%, Utsikten 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Orebro SK) and 47% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Utsikten in 33%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 43% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Orebro SK's recent games and 47% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Utsikten tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Utsikten defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Orebro SK 0-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.60 xG and Utsikten 1.06 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orebro SK fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Utsikten attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 48% | Draw 28% | Utsikten 24%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Utsikten win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 53%, Utsikten 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.18 PPG, Utsikten 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Utsikten (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.