Orebro SK 0-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Orebro SK versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 15 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
IK brage (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IK brage away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Orebro SK. A 0.50 PPG lead over IK brage (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Orebro SK 0W, IK brage 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 1–3 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
IK brage — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus IK brage 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 50% | IK brage 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.41 xG and IK brage 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.866 / defence 0.927 | IK brage attack 0.911 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.007. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Orebro SK games / 32 IK brage games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 50% | Draw 27% | IK brage 23%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | IK brage 4.35. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Orebro SK 50% | IK brage 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 50% | Draw 27% | IK brage 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Orebro SK 1.41 / IK brage 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.866 / def 0.927 | IK brage attack 0.911 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.85
IK brage xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs IK brage kick off?
Orebro SK vs IK brage kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Orebro SK 0 - 2 IK brage.
Where is Orebro SK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs IK brage part of?
Orebro SK vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 50% chance of winning, IK brage a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Orebro SK and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IK brage?
Record (2 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 0 | IK brage 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and IK brage in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. IK brage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.91x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.67
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.26
0.85
IK brage xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.85 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orebro SK come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 13D 33L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.35 PPG from 60 outings (21W 18D 21L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
IK brage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Orebro SK's home form reads 8W 7D 15L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (10W 10D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Orebro SK are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.40 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while IK brage have gone 21W 18D 21L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.03 PPG; IK brage away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
1
Draws
6
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, IK brage have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Orebro SK 0-3 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 50%, IK brage 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Orebro SK) and 63% (IK brage). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Orebro SK's games and 73% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Orebro SK's matches and 63% of IK brage's.
Do Orebro SK and IK brage tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IK brage in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Orebro SK 0-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.41 xG and IK brage 0.85 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. IK brage outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against IK brage attack 0.91 / defence 1.24, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 50% | Draw 27% | IK brage 23%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a IK brage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 50%, IK brage 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. IK brage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.