Gais 3-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees IK brage travel to Bravida Arena to take on Gais. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gais haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gais at Bravida Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IK brage — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, IK brage have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gais 0.80 PPG, IK brage 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gais, 1 for IK brage and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 4–1 with Gais winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gais in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
IK brage in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 44% versus IK brage 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 41% | IK brage 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.18 xG and IK brage 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.871 / defence 1.150 | IK brage attack 1.048 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.098. Data: 1 Gais games / 31 IK brage games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gais 33% | Draw 27% | IK brage 40%. Fair-value odds: Gais 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | IK brage 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Gais 70% | IK brage 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 33% | Draw 27% | IK brage 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Gais 1.18 / IK brage 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.871 / def 1.150 | IK brage attack 1.048 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: IK brage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.32
IK brage xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs IK brage kick off?
Gais vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Gais vs IK brage?
Gais 3 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Gais vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Gais vs IK brage part of?
Gais vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 33% chance of winning, IK brage a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gais and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IK brage?
Record (2 meetings): Gais 1W | Draws 0 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Gais and IK brage in?
Gais (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. IK brage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gais's attack at 0.87x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
33%
3.02
27%
3.71
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Gais xG
Total xG
2.50
1.32
IK brage xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gais and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Gais and 1.32 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Gais have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 10W 5D 17L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. Gais haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
IK brage's form line: 13W 9D 10L from 32 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, IK brage are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gais.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gais have posted 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L).
On the road, IK brage have gone 7W 5D 4L from 16 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gais are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.53 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 69%.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and IK brage in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 10W 5D 17L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while IK brage have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.12 PPG; IK brage away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gais and IK brage runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gais have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2023, when Gais won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Gais
0
Draws
1
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IK brage?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 3, IK brage have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when IK brage 0-4 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and IK brage?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gais at 62%, IK brage at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gais) and 69% (IK brage). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gais's games and 81% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gais vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Gais's matches and 69% of IK brage's.
Do Gais and IK brage tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IK brage in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat IK brage 3-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.18 xG and IK brage 1.32 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IK brage landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against IK brage attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gais 33% | Draw 27% | IK brage 40%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 41%, IK brage 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
IK brage's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Gais winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.