Osters IF 3-0 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Osters IF at Visma Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Superettan this season, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osters IF 1.40 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Osters IF hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for AFC Eskilstuna, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Osters IF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Osters IF and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Osters IF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 53% versus AFC Eskilstuna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 42% | AFC Eskilstuna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 2.05 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.432 / defence 1.111 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.096 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.076. Osters IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.432 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Osters IF games / 32 AFC Eskilstuna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Osters IF 55% | Draw 21% | AFC Eskilstuna 24%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | AFC Eskilstuna 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 70% | AFC Eskilstuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 55% | Draw 21% | AFC Eskilstuna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Osters IF 2.05 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.432 / def 1.111 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.096 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.31
AFC Eskilstuna xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Osters IF 3 - 0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 55% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (4 meetings): Osters IF 3W | Draws 1 | AFC Eskilstuna 0W.
What form are Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Osters IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (1.43) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
55%
1.83
21%
4.70
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Osters IF xG
Total xG
3.36
1.31
AFC Eskilstuna xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
3%
32.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.31 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 25W 19D 16L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
AFC Eskilstuna's form line: 23W 11D 26L from 60 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.57 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.80 PPG from 30 outings (15W 9D 6L).
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 7W 6D 17L from 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.48 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 25W 19D 16L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Osters IF's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.80 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Osters IF or AFC Eskilstuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AFC Eskilstuna in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Osters IF
2
Draws
0
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 57%, AFC Eskilstuna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Osters IF) and 53% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; AFC Eskilstuna in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Osters IF's games and 57% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Osters IF's recent games and 53% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AFC Eskilstuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat AFC Eskilstuna 3-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 2.05 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.31 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Eskilstuna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.43 / defence 1.11 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.10 / defence 1.09, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 55% | Draw 21% | AFC Eskilstuna 24%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 42%, AFC Eskilstuna 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.57 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.