Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 3 as Jonkopings Sodra welcome Gefle IF to Stadsparksvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 17 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stadsparksvallen, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.09 xG and Gefle IF 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.886 / defence 0.934 | Gefle IF attack 0.853 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.071. Data: 32 Jonkopings Sodra games / 2 Gefle IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 31% | Gefle IF 28%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Gefle IF 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Monday 17 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 31% | Gefle IF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.09 / Gefle IF 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.886 / def 0.934 | Gefle IF attack 0.853 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Gefle IF xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 17 April 2023 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF?
Jonkopings Sodra 2 - 1 Gefle IF.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 41% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Gefle IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Gefle IF in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Jonkopings Sodra home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 0.89x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.22
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
1.94
0.85
Gefle IF xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.85 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and Gefle IF runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
0
Draws
1
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Gefle IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, Gefle IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2023, when Gefle IF 1-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Jonkopings Sodra edge out Gefle IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Gefle IF 2-1 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.09 xG and Gefle IF 0.85 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Gefle IF attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 31% | Gefle IF 28%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.