Helsingborg 0-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK meet at Olympia in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Helsingborg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Helsingborg haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Helsingborg's home record at Olympia: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vasteras SK FK's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vasteras SK FK's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Vasteras SK FK are 0.80 PPG clear of Helsingborg in recent Superettan fixtures (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Helsingborg lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 59% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 44% versus Vasteras SK FK 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 53% | Vasteras SK FK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 0.93 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.718 / defence 1.118 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.123 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.076. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Helsingborg games / 32 Vasteras SK FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 26% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 47%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Vasteras SK FK 2.13. Vasteras SK FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 40% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 26% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Helsingborg 0.93 / Vasteras SK FK 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.718 / def 1.118 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.123 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Vasteras SK FK xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Helsingborg 0 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 26% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (2 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 1 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.72x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (1.12x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
26%
3.88
28%
3.61
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.28
1.35
Vasteras SK FK xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.97
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.35 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 14W 9D 9L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. Helsingborg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 10W 12D 10L from 32 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.31 for Vasteras SK FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (7W 3D 6L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 5D 7L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.66 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK in 69%.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Pre-Season
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 14W 9D 9L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 10W 12D 10L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 0-4 on 18 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Helsingborg
1
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 4-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 38%, Vasteras SK FK 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Helsingborg) and 50% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 62% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Helsingborg's recent games and 50% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasteras SK FK edge out Helsingborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Helsingborg 0-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 0.93 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.35 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Helsingborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.72 / defence 1.12 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 26% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 47%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 53%, Vasteras SK FK 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.59 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.