Oddevold 0-0 Ljungskile SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 13 as Oddevold welcome Ljungskile SK to Rimnersvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 June 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oddevold have posted 4W 3D 3L at Rimnersvallen — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.72 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 1.134 / defence 0.998 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.916 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.425. Data: 42 Oddevold games / 12 Ljungskile SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 47% | Draw 24% | Ljungskile SK 29%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Ljungskile SK 3.45. Oddevold hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oddevold as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jun 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 47% | Draw 24% | Ljungskile SK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Oddevold 1.72 / Ljungskile SK 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 1.134 / def 0.998 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.916 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Ljungskile SK xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK kick off?
Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 22 June 2026 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK?
Oddevold 0 - 0 Ljungskile SK.
Where is Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK part of?
Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 47% chance of winning, Ljungskile SK a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Oddevold and Ljungskile SK will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Ljungskile SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oddevold and Ljungskile SK in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Oddevold home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Oddevold's attack rating (1.13) and Ljungskile SK's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ljungskile SK's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.23
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Oddevold xG
Total xG
3.02
1.30
Ljungskile SK xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
5%
19.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Ljungskile SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.30 for Ljungskile SK, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Pre-Season
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Oddevold
1
Draws
0
Ljungskile SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Ljungskile SK?
From 2 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 1, Ljungskile SK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Ljungskile SK last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Ljungskile SK 0-1 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Ljungskile SK?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Ljungskile SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Oddevold's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold and Ljungskile SK finished level at 0-0 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.72 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.30 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oddevold fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Ljungskile SK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Ljungskile SK attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 47% | Draw 24% | Ljungskile SK 29%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.