Ljungskile SK 1-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ljungskile SK host Ostersunds FK at in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 June 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.16 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.843 / defence 1.102 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.885 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.437. Data: 11 Ljungskile SK games / 41 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 31% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 42%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Ostersunds FK 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jun 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 31% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Ljungskile SK 1.16 / Ostersunds FK 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.843 / def 1.102 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.885 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Ostersunds FK xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 14 June 2026.
What was the final score in Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Ljungskile SK 1 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 31% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ljungskile SK and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ljungskile SK and Ostersunds FK in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Ostersunds FK away split: 0.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.20 / GA 2.20 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ljungskile SK's attack at 0.84x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Ljungskile SK's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
31%
3.21
26%
3.79
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
2.56
1.40
Ostersunds FK xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
13.02
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.40 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ljungskile SK
2
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Ostersunds FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 0, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 0-0 Ljungskile SK.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ljungskile SK and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at , Regular Season - 12, as Ljungskile SK and Ostersunds FK drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ljungskile SK 1.16 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.40 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ljungskile SK attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ljungskile SK 31% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 42%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.