Helsingborg 5-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 21 June 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Helsingborg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Helsingborg at Olympia this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIF Sundsvall's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Helsingborg's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Helsingborg have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with GIF Sundsvall managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Helsingborg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Helsingborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 43% versus GIF Sundsvall 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 52% | GIF Sundsvall 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.31 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.998 / defence 1.162 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.611 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.415. Data: 42 Helsingborg games / 42 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 43% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 29%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | GIF Sundsvall 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 50% | GIF Sundsvall 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jun 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 43% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Helsingborg 1.31 / GIF Sundsvall 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.998 / def 1.162 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.611 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
GIF Sundsvall xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 June 2026 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Helsingborg 5 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 43% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (8 meetings): Helsingborg 5W | Draws 2 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Helsingborg's attack rating (1.00) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.61x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
43%
2.30
28%
3.59
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.31
1.00
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
8%
12.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.00 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 16D 20L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 21W 14D 25L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.28 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 5D 14L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.13 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.43 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 5-2 on 21 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Helsingborg
3
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
From 10 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 6, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 47%, GIF Sundsvall 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Helsingborg) and 47% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 33% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 43% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Helsingborg's recent games and 47% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Helsingborg run riot with a 5-2 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat GIF Sundsvall 5-2 at Olympia, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.31 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.00 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Helsingborg beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.00 / defence 1.16 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.61 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 43% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 29%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 52%, GIF Sundsvall 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.47 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.