Varbergs BoIS FC 2-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Paskbergsvallen to take on Varbergs BoIS FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 June 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Varbergs BoIS FC at Paskbergsvallen this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.30 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Varbergs BoIS FC, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Varbergs BoIS FC 67% and Landskrona BoIS 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 57% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.10 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.023 / defence 0.833 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.988 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.425. Landskrona BoIS's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 42 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 34% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 37%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Landskrona BoIS 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Varbergs BoIS FC 70% | Landskrona BoIS 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Paskbergsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jun 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 34% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.10 / Landskrona BoIS 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.023 / def 0.833 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.988 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Landskrona BoIS xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 22 June 2026 at Paskbergsvallen.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Varbergs BoIS FC 2 - 3 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Paskbergsvallen.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 34% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (4 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 2W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (1.02) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
34%
2.94
29%
3.51
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.28
1.17
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.17 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 21W 19D 20L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 24W 15D 21L from 60 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.37 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (12W 10D 8L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 5D 14L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.38 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 21W 19D 20L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 15D 21L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2024, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS?
From 5 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 2-3 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 60%, Landskrona BoIS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 57% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-3 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.10 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.17 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.83 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.99 / defence 0.75, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 34% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 37%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, Landskrona BoIS 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.37 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.