Ljungskile SK 3-2 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orebro SK make the trip to to face Ljungskile SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 June 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Orebro SK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Orebro SK's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.25 xG and Orebro SK 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.829 / defence 1.103 | Orebro SK attack 0.823 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.442. Data: 13 Ljungskile SK games / 43 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 35% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 38%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Orebro SK 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jun 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 35% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Ljungskile SK 1.25 / Orebro SK 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.829 / def 1.103 | Orebro SK attack 0.823 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Orebro SK xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 June 2026.
What was the final score in Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK?
Ljungskile SK 3 - 2 Orebro SK.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK part of?
Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 35% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ljungskile SK and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ljungskile SK and Orebro SK in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Orebro SK away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ljungskile SK's attack at 0.83x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.82x) against Ljungskile SK's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.75
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
2.56
1.31
Orebro SK xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.31 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since June 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Ljungskile SK
0
Draws
0
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Orebro SK?
From 1 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 1, Orebro SK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ljungskile SK 3-2 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Ljungskile SK and Orebro SK?
Ljungskile SK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Ljungskile SK defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ljungskile SK beat Orebro SK 3-2 at , Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ljungskile SK 1.25 xG and Orebro SK 1.31 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ljungskile SK beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ljungskile SK attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Orebro SK attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ljungskile SK 35% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 38%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ljungskile SK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.