Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 59%, yet in-form Norrby IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Norrby IF travel to Norrkopings Idrottspark to take on IFK Norrkoping. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 June 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Norrkoping stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. IFK Norrkoping haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
IFK Norrkoping at Norrkopings Idrottspark this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have recorded 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Norrby IF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Norrby IF are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, IFK Norrkoping have won 0, Norrby IF 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.89 xG and Norrby IF 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.114 / defence 0.835 | Norrby IF attack 0.791 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.460. Data: 13 IFK Norrkoping games / 13 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 59% | Draw 22% | Norrby IF 19%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Norrby IF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to IFK Norrkoping (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Norrkoping at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Norrby IF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Norrkopings Idrottspark • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jun 2026, 13:00 UTC • Managers: IFK Norrkoping (M. Falk) | Norrby IF (T. Linderoth) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (1 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 0W | Draws 1 | Norrby IF 0W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: IFK Norrkoping 1 – 1 Norrby IF • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: IFK Norrkoping 0% / Draw 100% / Norrby IF 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 59% / draw 22% / away 19% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (0% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.86 (54% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 100%, Poisson BTTS probability 53% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L • Norrby IF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D • IFK Norrkoping home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Norrby IF away split: 1.00 PPG from 1 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 0 • Form edge: Norrby IF lead by 0.90 PPG (2.00 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (IFK Norrkoping): Poisson projects 1.89 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Norrby IF): Poisson projects 0.96 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.86 (54% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~75% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 53% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Norrby IF on PPG but Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping higher (59% vs 19% for Norrby IF) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 59% | Draw 22% | Norrby IF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.89 / Norrby IF 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.114 / def 0.835 | Norrby IF attack 0.791 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Norrby IF xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 June 2026 at Norrkopings Idrottspark.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF?
IFK Norrkoping 0 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Norrkopings Idrottspark.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 59% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Norrby IF?
• Record (1 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 0W | Draws 1 | Norrby IF 0W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: IFK Norrkoping 1 – 1 Norrby IF • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: IFK Norrkoping 0% / Draw 100% / Norrby IF 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 59% / draw 22% / away 19% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (0% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.86 (54% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 100%, Poisson BTTS probability 53% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Norrby IF in?
• IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L • Norrby IF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D • IFK Norrkoping home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Norrby IF away split: 1.00 PPG from 1 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 0 • Form edge: Norrby IF lead by 0.90 PPG (2.00 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (IFK Norrkoping): Poisson projects 1.89 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Norrby IF): Poisson projects 0.96 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.86 (54% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~75% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 53% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Norrby IF on PPG but Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping higher (59% vs 19% for Norrby IF) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture