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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Landskrona BoIS host IFK Varnamo at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 June 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. IFK Varnamo haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Landskrona BoIS 1.20 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

IFK Varnamo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Landskrona BoIS's 1 victories.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–4 with IFK Varnamo winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IFK Varnamo have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).

IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 59% versus IFK Varnamo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 59% | IFK Varnamo 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 2.56 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.010 / defence 0.911 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.728 / defence 1.753. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.460. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.753 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Landskrona BoIS games / 13 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 72% | Draw 16% | IFK Varnamo 12%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | IFK Varnamo 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Form averages suggest only ~1.6 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 68% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 72% — clear model lean.

Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | IFK Varnamo 50% BTTS from recent games.

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