Ljungskile SK 1-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ljungskile SK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIF Sundsvall make the trip to Skarsjövallen to face Ljungskile SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.33 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.802 / defence 1.116 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.723 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.387. Data: 6 Ljungskile SK games / 36 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 42% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 31%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | GIF Sundsvall 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ljungskile SK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ljungskile SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Skarsjövallen • Kick-off: Thursday 14 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 42% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Ljungskile SK 1.33 / GIF Sundsvall 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.802 / def 1.116 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.723 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Ljungskile SK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
1.12
GIF Sundsvall xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 14 May 2026 at Skarsjövallen.
What was the final score in Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Ljungskile SK 1 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Skarsjövallen.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 42% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ljungskile SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ljungskile SK and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ljungskile SK and GIF Sundsvall in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. GIF Sundsvall away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ljungskile SK's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.72x) against Ljungskile SK's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ljungskile SK Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.69
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
2.45
1.12
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.12 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Ljungskile SK
0
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and GIF Sundsvall?
From 1 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 1, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Ljungskile SK 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Ljungskile SK and GIF Sundsvall?
Ljungskile SK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Ljungskile SK edge out GIF Sundsvall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ljungskile SK beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 at Skarsjövallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ljungskile SK 1.33 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.12 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ljungskile SK attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.72 / defence 1.10, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ljungskile SK 42% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 31%, with Ljungskile SK to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.