GIF Sundsvall 2-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Landskrona BoIS at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at NP3 Arena, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (GIF Sundsvall) versus 1.20 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 4 for Landskrona BoIS and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 50% versus Landskrona BoIS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | Landskrona BoIS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.33 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.988 / defence 1.364 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.929 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.453. Data: 37 GIF Sundsvall games / 37 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 50%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Landskrona BoIS 2.00. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Landskrona BoIS 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.33 / Landskrona BoIS 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.988 / def 1.364 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.929 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Landskrona BoIS xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 May 2026 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 28% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (8 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 2W | Draws 2 | Landskrona BoIS 4W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.99) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
28%
3.61
23%
4.39
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.17
1.84
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.61
28%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
4%
22.75
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.84 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 22W 14D 26L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 25W 16D 21L from 62 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.29 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (11W 9D 11L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 6D 14L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.40 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 22W 14D 26L in their last 62 games (1.29 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 25W 16D 21L in their last 62 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.35 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 18 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 58%, Landskrona BoIS 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (GIF Sundsvall) and 55% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 55% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 55% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Landskrona BoIS 2-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.33 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.84 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.99 / defence 1.36 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 50%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, Landskrona BoIS 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.29 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.